What We Think We Know (But Don’t)
Confidence is a powerful thing—until it blinds us to what we don’t know.
Recently, my family and I were debating something pretty simple: which bottled water tastes the best? We all had our favorites, convinced we could instantly recognize them. So, just for fun, we decided to put it to the test.
We set up a blind tasting with 16 different brands, sure that our preferences would hold up. But as we worked through the samples, something surprising happened. Not only did we struggle to tell them apart, but many of our rankings completely flipped.
It turns out, our strong opinions weren’t based on taste alone. Branding, packaging, and preconceived notions influenced our perceptions far more than we realized.
And that got me thinking: how often does this happen in business and leadership?
Overconfidence: A Common Leadership Trap
This wasn’t just about bottled water. It was a lesson in overconfidence.
We assume we know what’s best because it worked in the past.
We make decisions based on perception, not reality.
We trust our instincts—but don’t test them against new information.
This happens all the time in leadership:
A manager believes they know what motivates their team—but never asks.
A company doubles down on a strategy without questioning its assumptions.
An executive dismisses an idea that sounds unfamiliar—only to later realize its value.
The strongest leaders aren’t the ones who are always right. They’re the ones who recognize they might not be.
How to Catch Blind Spots Before They Catch You
The next time you feel certain about something, pause and ask yourself:
✅ What’s influencing my perception?
Is my assumption based on facts, or just familiarity?
Am I considering different perspectives—or only what feels obvious to me?
✅ How can I test this?
Could I gather new data, get a second opinion, or challenge my initial thinking?
✅ Who sees this differently than I do?
The more confident you are, the more valuable it is to ask, “What am I missing?”
What we think we know isn’t always the truth. Sometimes, the only way to see clearly is to step back and challenge our own certainty.
So, what’s something you’ve always been sure about that might be worth re-examining? You might be surprised by what you learn. 🚀
